Schaeffer's Options Center

Schaeffer's Daily Option Blog
 
Puts Abound as Morgan Stanley Stalls on the Charts
Author
Sarah Wasserman (swasserman@sir-inc.com)

7/30/2010 3:11:17 PM

Morgan Stanley (MS) gapped higher after reporting earnings on July 21, but has since settled into a pattern of sideways movement. Specifically, MS has been hovering around the $27 level for the past several days, which is coincidentally the home of its 10-week moving average. This trendline has stifled all of the stock's attempts in the past few days, weeks, and months, as MS has not managed a weekly close above it since April 30.

Looking ahead, it seems that traders have bearish expectations for MS. The stock's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE) put/call volume ratio of 1.41 reveals that puts bought to open significantly outnumber calls purchased during the past two weeks. This ratio ranks in the 77th percentile of its annual range, indicating that traders on the ISE are initiating bearish bets on MS at a faster pace than usual lately.

Turning to today's activity, the August 27 put has seen volume of 643 contracts change hands -- the majority of which traded at the ask price, revealing they were likely purchased. However, we'll have to wait until Monday to determine whether these at-the-money puts are fresh bearish positions. If these puts were, in fact, bought to open, then it would appear that traders are counting on MS to slip from its newfound perch in the coming weeks.

With just an hour until the close, MS was hovering at breakeven, around $27.00.

 
Post-Earnings Slump Lures Put Players to Coinstar, Inc.
Author
Sarah Wasserman (swasserman@sir-inc.com)

7/30/2010 2:01:58 PM

Coinstar, Inc. (CSTR) stepped into the earnings spotlight after the close on Thursday, reporting a second-quarter profit of 41 cents per share on $342.4 million in revenue. Analysts were looking for a profit of 33 cents per share on $381.48 million in revenue. Shareholders did not respond well, as the retailer services stock is currently down some 7.8%, to around $44.30.

Unsurprisingly, puts have been all the rage today, with roughly 6,300 of these bearish bets traded by midday -- eight times the stock's expected single-session put volume of around 762 contracts.

The August 46 strike has been the most popular put today, with 2,073 contracts traded -- 63% at the bid price, revealing they were sold. With CSTR hovering around the $44 level, these puts may have been liquidated by traders taking profit on their positions.

A few strikes lower, the August 44 put has seen volume of 1,137 contracts change hands -- the majority of which traded at the ask price, indicating they were likely purchased. With fewer than 500 contracts currently open at this strike, it seems that at least a portion of these puts are fresh bearish positions.

Elsewhere on the Street, the bears have also made their presence known, as more than 17.7% of the stock's available float is currently tied up in short interest.

 
Wynn Resorts, Limited Call Buyers Shrug Off Stock's Post-Earnings Trajectory
Author
Andrea Kramer (akramer@sir-inc.com)

7/30/2010 1:22:32 PM

Despite the company's announcement that second-quarter profit more than doubled on solid revenue from Macau, the shares of Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) have ticked lower today, as shareholders apparently aren't impressed with the figures. However, it seems some options speculators are still optimistic toward the casino concern, judging by today's post-earnings activity.

In early afternoon trading, the equity has seen more than 2,600 August 85 calls change hands on open interest of fewer than 2,200, pointing to newly added positions. Plus, more than half of the front-month calls have traded closer to the ask price, hinting at a batch of freshly purchased bullish bets. By buying the August 85 calls to open, the traders are betting the shares of WYNN will stay atop the $85 level through August options expiration.

Meanwhile, a slew of options speculators are likely cheering WYNN's post-earnings trajectory. Ahead of the firm's turn in the earnings spotlight, the stock sported a 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE) put/call volume ratio of 1.73, implying that traders during the prior two weeks had bought to open more WYNN puts than calls. What's more, this ratio ranks in the 77th annual percentile, suggesting that options players on the ISE were initiating bearish bets over bullish at an accelerated rate.

Further echoing the pessimism plaguing WYNN, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.36 ranks in the 68th annual percentile. In other words, near-term options traders are more skeptically skewed than usual toward the gambling guru.

At last check, the shares of WYNN have surrendered 0.9% to explore the $87 neighborhood.

 
Pre-Earnings Pessimists Hop on Molson Coors Brewing Company
Author
Andrea Kramer (akramer@sir-inc.com)

7/30/2010 12:23:52 PM

Beer behemoth Molson Coors Brewing Company (TAP) will chug into the earnings spotlight on Tuesday, Aug. 3. Ahead of the event, it appears the options crowd is somewhat wary of the stock, with bearish bets being added at an accelerated pace lately.

During the past two weeks, speculators on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have shown a distinct preference for long puts over calls, as indicated by TAP's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 2.22. What's more, this ratio ranks in the 91st percentile of its annual range, implying that traders on the ISE have bought to open puts over calls at a faster clip only 9% of the time during the past year.

Meanwhile, a plethora of options players on Thursday opted for the pessimistic road less traveled. By the closing bell, TAP had seen nearly 2,300 August 45 calls cross the tape – about eight times its expected daily call activity at any strike. However, 88% of the calls traded at the bid price, and call open interest at the at-the-money strike swelled by almost 2,000 contracts overnight, pointing to sell-to-open activity.

By writing the August 45 calls to open, the sellers are betting the shares of TAP will finish south of the $45 level by the time front-month options expire. In this best-case scenario, the calls will expire without value, allowing the traders to retain the entire credit received at initiation – the most they can possibly gain on the play.

Around midday, the shares of TAP have added 0.2% to hover just shy of the $45 level.

 
Post-Earnings Calls Proliferate on MetLife, Inc.
Author
Sarah Wasserman (swasserman@sir-inc.com)

7/30/2010 12:02:05 PM

Insurance issue MetLife, Inc. (MET) reported on Thursday that second-quarter profits rose to $1.56 billion, a huge reversal from its year-ago losses of $1.4 billion. Earnings arrived at $1.23 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate for a profit of $1.00 per share.

Thursday's positive earnings surprise has catapulted MET roughly 3.5% so far today, to $41.64 -- above the troublesome $40 level, which has served as significant resistance to MET in the past several weeks. Prior to this, the $40 level provided support for the stock, and could now resume that role.

Calls have been wildly popular on MET today, with some 4,500 of these bullish bets changing hands so far -- already triple the insurance stock's usual daily call volume of just 1,416 contracts.

Option players have taken note of MET's technical feat, with the September 42 call being the day's most active strike. Roughly 860 contracts have traded on this strike so far today -- 83% at the ask price, suggesting they were likely purchased. Given MET's post-earnings jump, these calls are now out of the money by less than one point.

Despite today's heavy call activity, puts have actually been popular on MET lately. The stock sports a 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE) put/call volume ratio of 1.60, in the 76th annual percentile. However, in light of Thursday's solid earnings report, these put players may rethink their bearish positions on MET, resulting in a fresh wave of buying pressure for the insurance concern.

 
Commentary by WhatsTrading.com
 
Deere and Co (DE) $66.53 +3.13%
7/30/2010 3:20:04 PM

Deere shares are up $2.10 to $66.60, a new 52-week high and option volume is 3x the daily average driven a Sep. 65 - 67.5 strangle, which traded 3,710 contracts on ISE at $5.09. ISEE sentiment data indicate that both legs are opening customer buyers and therefore a volatility play on the farm equipment and machine maker. It might be a play on earnings, due Aug 18. Shares are up and implied volatility down about 2.5 percent to 34 today, as corn, wheat and soybeans all see sharp rallies Friday.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Select Sector SPDR Energy Fund (XLE) $53.70 -0.46%
7/30/2010 12:20:02 PM

Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) lost 22 cents to $53.73 a share after crude oil slipped 65 cents to $77.71 a barrel Friday. One options strategist seems to expect volatility in the fund and bought the August 53 - 55 strangle at $1.69, 10000X on PHLX. Looks like a new position. XLE is one of nine Select Sector Funds. Collectively, the nine funds hold all of the S&P 500 stocks. XLE holds all of the energy-related names. Implied volatility in the fund is now 26, compared to S&P 500 volatility, as measured by VIX, at 24.5.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Oracle Corp (ORCL) $23.59 -0.46%
7/30/2010 11:20:03 AM

Oracle (ORCL) shares fell late Thursday and are down 26 cents to $23.44 this morning on news the company is being sued by the Department of Justice for alleged software contract fraud. The news triggered a flurry of activity in Oracle's August 23 adn 24 puts late yesterday. The 23s traded 14,789X (78 percent Ask) and open interest increased by 9,349. The 24s traded 13,800X and created 10,741 in new open interest. In all, open interest in Oracle puts increased by 24K yesterday (vs. +267 calls) and implied volatility jumped to 31.5 from 25.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Riverbed Technology Inc (RVBD) $36.52 +0.66%
7/29/2010 1:19:58 PM

Riverbed shares are up 30c to $36.60, and touched a new 52-week high of $37.28 Thursday. Option volume is running 5x the daily average in what looks very similar to action seen Wednesday, when an investor was apparently selling Jan 41 calls at $2.80 to buy the Jan 31 - 36 put spread at $2.20, 3000X total. Today, the, Jan. $31/$36 put spread has traded 3,600x in what looks like a purchase at $2.05. Meanwhile, Jan 41 calls traded on the $3 bid, 3600X. Another block of 3400 Sep 40 calls also traded, at the $1.20 ask, and this might be an offsetting trade. In the end, it looks like this strategist is accumulating a bearish position -- selling Jan 41 calls and buying the Jan 31 - 36 put spread -- over the past two days. Co. reported earnings last week.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Genzyme Corporation (GENZ) $70.24 +3.30%
7/29/2010 11:19:58 AM

Genzyme (GENZ) is up $2.25 to $70.25 after the Wall Street Journal reported late yesterday that Sanofi (SNY) is "increasingly likely" to take a formal buyout offer to Genzyme's board. Then, CNBC reported this morning that SNY is likely to send a "bear hug" letter to Genzyme in the next 72 hours. Active trading continues in GENZ options. One player bought 5000 January 75 calls at $2.35 and sold 2,500 Aug 75 calls at 45 cents, possibly rolling a position and looking for an offer substantially greater than $75 per share. However, today's top trades also include an August 67.5 - Jan 65 put spread, apparently bought at $2.10, 4000X, which might be a hedge should any deal talk fall apart after the August expiration. Lazard downgraded GENZ shares to Hold from Buy this morning. Implied volatility is down 25 percent to 30.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Kellogg Company (K) $49.94 -3.07%
7/29/2010 9:59:59 AM

With Kellogg earnings not so Grrrreat! shares opened at $49.54, a $2 gap down from Wednesday's close. Early option flow is concentrated in the Aug 50 puts, with 8000 contracts trading in the first 10 mins of the day, and the largest block trading at 1.10 on the ISE with shares near $50.10. Yesterday afternoon we noted buyers paying 50-55cents for this contract, and today's volume appears to be closing that short term bet for a gain.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN) $30.11 -5.37%
7/28/2010 4:20:01 PM

Shares of Rubicon, a maker of LED parts and products, are off $1.70 to 430.10 and option volume is 6x the daily average as the March $30 calls trade 1,538 and the March $40 calls trade 3,130 contracts in an opening ratio spread. The 30s were bought at $6.30 and 40s sold at $2.50. Looks like a bullish 1x2 spread ahead of earnings. The company is set to report on August 5.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT) $26.04 -0.46%
7/28/2010 2:20:00 PM

A massive trade in Microsoft calls printed on the ISE this afternoon, totalling nearly 180,000 contracts, versus a hedge 700,000 shares at $26.11. Data indicates a customer bought 128960 September 28 calls to open, for an avg price near 24cents, and sold nearly 50,000 Jan-12 30 calls to open at an avg price near $1.975. Net options premium is about $6.7million collected on the trade, and while initially delta neutral, the trade is very long gamma and profitable if shares sell off sharply, or rally beyond the $29 level. Theta on the trade is nearly $54k/day and it may be related to the 190,000 contract spread that traded yesterday in MSFT (in that case, paper bought Sep 17th 27.5 calls against a sale of Oct 27s.)

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Symantec Corp (SYMC) $14.89 -0.67%
7/28/2010 1:20:01 PM

Symantec shares are off 10c to $14.90 and notable volume in the Sep. $16 calls as a block of 18,500 (now a total of 25,000) have traded at the 35 ask price most likely tied to stock. The computer software company is set to report earnings after the close.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Patriot Coal Corporation (PCX) $12.20 -1.61%
7/28/2010 10:00:04 AM

Patriot Coal (PCX) shares lost 9.3 percent, to $12.40, post-earnings yesterday and a noteworthy trade surfaced late when a strategist apparently bought the Jan 11 - 20 call spread at $2.61, 6950X. Open interest indicate new positions in both legs and therefore a spread that makes its best profits if shares rally 61.3 percent through the January 2011 expiration. Shares are down another 24 cents to $12.16 this morning after BMO Capital cut PCX to Market Perform from OutPerform.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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More Options Commentaries and Observations by Schaeffer’s

 
Monday Morning Outlook: Seven Percent July Gain was DJIA's Best Advance in a Year

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was flat for the week, but gained 7.1% during the month of July -- its biggest monthly advance in a year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) also skyrocketed to 6.9% monthly gains. Looking ahead, Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, is seeing more put buying on major exchange-traded funds, which we interpret as hedge funds buying protection when they are in accumulation mode. However, Todd is also worried about intermediate-term turbulence amid midterm elections and a regulatory environment that is anything but business-friendly. Later, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White finds that the 1,115 level has been smackdown territory for the SPX several times this year. In fact, 1,115 is the approximate level at which the SPX kicked off the year, and Rocky wonders whether the index's level at the beginning of the year functions as resistance in tough markets (and vice versa, acting as support in uptrending markets). You'll be interested in his findings. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

read more...

Close Article

 
Market Recap: DJIA Adds Seven Percent in July, Marking Blue Chips' Best Month in a Year

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was flat for the week, but gained 7.1% during the month of July -- its biggest monthly advance in a year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) also skyrocketed to 6.9% monthly gains. Looking ahead, Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, is seeing more put buying on major exchange-traded funds, which we interpret as hedge funds buying protection when they are in accumulation mode. However, Todd is also worried about intermediate-term turbulence amid midterm elections and a regulatory environment that is anything but business-friendly. Later, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White finds that the 1,115 level has been smackdown territory for the SPX several times this year. In fact, 1,115 is the approximate level at which the SPX kicked off the year, and Rocky wonders whether the index's level at the beginning of the year functions as resistance in tough markets (and vice versa, acting as support in uptrending markets). You'll be interested in his findings. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

read more...

Close Article

 
Ahead of Earnings: MannKind Corp., MasterCard Inc., and Sirius XM Radio Inc.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was flat for the week, but gained 7.1% during the month of July -- its biggest monthly advance in a year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) also skyrocketed to 6.9% monthly gains. Looking ahead, Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, is seeing more put buying on major exchange-traded funds, which we interpret as hedge funds buying protection when they are in accumulation mode. However, Todd is also worried about intermediate-term turbulence amid midterm elections and a regulatory environment that is anything but business-friendly. Later, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White finds that the 1,115 level has been smackdown territory for the SPX several times this year. In fact, 1,115 is the approximate level at which the SPX kicked off the year, and Rocky wonders whether the index's level at the beginning of the year functions as resistance in tough markets (and vice versa, acting as support in uptrending markets). You'll be interested in his findings. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

read more...

Close Article

 
Pre-Earnings Pessimism Palpable on The Procter & Gamble Company

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was flat for the week, but gained 7.1% during the month of July -- its biggest monthly advance in a year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) also skyrocketed to 6.9% monthly gains. Looking ahead, Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, is seeing more put buying on major exchange-traded funds, which we interpret as hedge funds buying protection when they are in accumulation mode. However, Todd is also worried about intermediate-term turbulence amid midterm elections and a regulatory environment that is anything but business-friendly. Later, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White finds that the 1,115 level has been smackdown territory for the SPX several times this year. In fact, 1,115 is the approximate level at which the SPX kicked off the year, and Rocky wonders whether the index's level at the beginning of the year functions as resistance in tough markets (and vice versa, acting as support in uptrending markets). You'll be interested in his findings. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

read more...

Close Article

 
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