Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian

"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
~ Humphrey Neill, The Art of Contrary Thinking

The above quote has been reiterated numerous times in our publications because of its ability to succinctly capture the essence of contrarian thinking. While simple in theory, the task of capturing the prevailing sentiment can be as elusive as defining the boundaries of a cloud. The closer you get to it, the harder it is to see.(More)

 Print  My Yahoo  Add RSS
 

Amazon.com May Win the Price Battle, but Lose the War

Posted on 7/30/2010 3:57 PM

Publication: "The Wall Street Journal"
Publication title: "The High Cost of a Cheap Kindle"
Publication Date: 7/30/2010

KeyWords: AMZN AAPL 

Brief Summary:

This article notes that Amazon.com (AMZN) is more than willing to throw down in the e-reader price wars. As evidence, the company launched a new, cheaper version of the Kindle "just weeks after reducing the price of the existing version of the device." The author infers that AMZN is attempting to broaden the Kindle's appeal -- but warns that while "Kindle sales have room to grow," the device "also faces intensifying competition," most pressingly from Apple's (AAPL) iPad. In other words, it's not exactly shocking that AMZN is cutting prices aggressively to stay competitive, even if it's "a good bet" that the company is losing money on each $139 unit. Unfortunately, concludes the author, AMZN's apparent indifference to its bottom line could eventually spook investors.


Contrarian Takeaway:

Speaking of price woes, traders might also be feeling uneasy with AMZN's recent technical troubles. The stock broke below support at its 200-day moving average in late June, and this trendline quickly switched roles to act as resistance -- a short-term rally in AMZN shares was harshly rejected at the 200-day on July 13. Plus, AMZN's 10-week moving average has pressured the shares lower since early May.

Accordingly, skepticism seems to be on the rise toward AMZN. The equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.20 ranks in the 76th annual percentile, pointing to elevated skepticism among short-term options traders. In the same bearish vein, short interest on AMZN rose by 10.7% during the most recent reporting period, and now accounts for 3.4% of the equity's float.

Unfortunately, there's plenty of room for pessimism to grow. Zacks reports that 20 out of 32 analysts maintain a "strong buy" or "buy" rating on the stock, leaving ample room for potential downgrades should AMZN continue to struggle on the charts. Any negative notes from this group could lure more bears to the bandwagon, potentially exacerbating the stock's slide.

Elizabeth Harrow (eharrow@sir-inc.com)


 Discuss this commentary (Comments: 0)  |   Email to a Friend  |  RSS Feed Add RSS Feed
 Del.icio.us   Facebook   Reddit   Newsvine   Digg!Digg  

Examining the Street's Earnings Expectations for Electronic Arts Inc.

Posted on 7/29/2010 11:38 AM

Publication: "MarketWatch"
Publication title: "Videogame publishers to report tough June quarter"
Publication Date: 7/29/2010

KeyWords: ERTS ATVI THQI 

Brief Summary:

A trio of big-name videogame publishers will step into the earnings confessional next week – most notably, Activision Blizzard (ATVI), THQ Inc. (THQI), and Electronic Arts (ERTS). Ahead of the event, this MarketWatch article says analysts are expecting the reports to show an industry-wide downturn in second-quarter videogame sales.

According to the NPD Group, domestic sales of videogame software totaled $1.39 billion for the quarter, marking a 12% dip from the year-ago period. The columnist attributes a lot of the slump to "a lack of hit titles this year," as – except for a couple of surprises like TTWO's Red Dead Redemption – "other releases have not performed as well as expected."

Honing in on ERTS, which is slated to release its fiscal first-quarter figures on Tuesday, analysts are expecting the firm to report a per-share loss of 35 cents on revenue of $502.3 million. In the same period a year earlier, the company confessed to a net loss of only 2 cents per share on $816 million in sales. However, according to the article, some analysts think Electronic Arts' saving grace next week could be strong pre-sales of Madden NFL, which they say could motivate the gaming guru to issue solid guidance for the current quarter.


Contrarian Takeaway:

While the MarketWatch columnist isn't expecting stellar earnings reports from the videogame vixens, it appears the options crowd is betting on a post-earnings rally for ERTS. During the past couple of weeks, speculators on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have bought to open nearly 19 ERTS calls for every put, as indicated by the security's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 18.57. What's more, this reading ranks in the 95th annual percentile, implying that traders on the ISE have initiated bullish bets over bearish at a faster clip only 5% of the time during the past year.

Garnering the most attention has been the at-the-money August 16 call, which has seen about 29,000 new positions added over the past 10 sessions. In fact, the 16 strike is now the clear-cut home to peak call open interest in the front-month series, with close to 32,000 contracts in residence.

As a result of the escalating affinity for short-term calls, ERTS' Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) has tumbled recently. More specifically, the equity's SOIR now rests at 0.39, implying that near-term calls more than double their put counterparts. Furthermore, this ratio stands higher than only 31% of all others taken during the past year, suggesting that short-term traders have been more optimistically aligned toward ERTS only 31% of the time.

Elsewhere, Zacks reports that – despite the equity's year-to-date deficit of more than 9% - half of the 26 ranking analysts still consider ERTS worthy of a "buy" or better endorsement. In fact, 10 of those recommendations consist of "strong buy" ratings, compared to only three "sell" or worse ratings.

Should Electronic Arts confess to a steeper-than-expected per-share loss for its most recent quarter, or issue discouraging forward guidance, this lingering optimism could come back to haunt the stock. A mass exodus of bulls in the options pits, or a wave of negative analyst notes, could exacerbate the gaming guru's recent woes on the charts.

Andrea Kramer (akramer@sir-inc.com)


 Discuss this commentary (Comments: 0)  |   Email to a Friend  |  RSS Feed Add RSS Feed
 Del.icio.us   Facebook   Reddit   Newsvine   Digg!Digg  

Health Management Associates Shares Are Still Under The Weather

Posted on 7/28/2010 2:57 PM

Publication: "Barron's"
Publication title: "HMA's Road to Recovery"
Publication Date: 7/27/2010

KeyWords: HMA 

Brief Summary:

Despite last year's recovery rally, shares of Health Management Associates (HMA) are once again heading lower. As this Barron's piece notes, HMA is not alone, as the rest of the hospital sector is also feeling ill lately. However, the author believes that "Wall Street underestimates HMA's ability to generate profit."

For instance, under Chief Executive Gary Newsome, the company has focused on paying down debt and improving existing hospitals, according to Barron's. The strategy seems to be paying off, as the company grew profit last year. What's more, HMA reported earlier in the week that second-quarter earnings jumped 23%, while reiterating its goal of full-year earnings growth of 22%.

In response to the company's improving outlook, Jason Gurda, an analyst for Leerink Swann, said that "They [HMA] have gone from having the worst trends in the industry to having the best, and it's paying off."


Contrarian Takeaway:

HMA's longer-term uptrend and short-term technical troubles have created quite a bit of uncertainty among investors. The stock is sitting on a 12-month rally of 23%, but it is poised to closed below long-term support at its 10-month moving average for the first time since March 2009. What's more, the shares continue to be pressured lower by their declining 10-day and 20-day moving averages. In fact, despite a positive post-earnings rally, HMA's rebound was stopped short by its 20-day trendline.

Meanwhile, bullish investors are showing signs of weariness. For instance, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.34 indicates that calls roughly triple puts among near-term options. However, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) reveal that the ratio of puts purchased versus calls purchased during the past two weeks is just nine percentage points shy of an annual peak.

What's more, HMA is in danger of being targeted by analyst downgrades. Specifically, 15 of the 21 analysts following the shares rate them a "buy" or better, with nary a "sell" rating to be found. If HMA's poor price action persists, we could see these bulls begin to exit their positions at a faster pace, potentially resulting in additional losses for the security.

Joseph Hargett (jhargett@sir-inc.com)


 Discuss this commentary (Comments: 0)  |   Email to a Friend  |  RSS Feed Add RSS Feed
 Del.icio.us   Facebook   Reddit   Newsvine   Digg!Digg  

Are Traders Too Optimistic About ATVI?

Posted on 7/27/2010 11:59 AM

Publication: "CNBC"
Publication title: "Activision's Next Blockbuster as Starcraft II Hits Shelves"
Publication Date: 7/26/2010

KeyWords: ATVI 

Brief Summary:

Gamers everywhere cheered as Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) released "Starcraft II" -- the sequel to its best-selling "Starcraft"-- today. This CNBC article looks at the potential for "Starcraft II" to fuel ATVI to unprecedented success, as analysts expect 4.5 million copies of the new game to be sold by August -- twice as many copies as the year's best-selling console game to date.

"For those that are looking for some outperformance from Activision, this is it," said analyst Eric Handler. He also added that "Starcraft II" is the biggest game the company will release this quarter, and one of the three biggest games of the year. In fact, one analyst surmises that the new game will add 5 cents to ATVI's earnings this quarter.

However, don't count on "Starcraft II" to just provide a boost for ATVI in the short term. This article points out that staggered sales releases in Asia will fuel ATVI for many months to come.


Contrarian Takeaway:

While there's no argument that "Starcraft II" could provide a lasting lift for the game guru, what this article fails to note is that traders and analysts are already on Team ATVI. First off, Zacks reports that 24 out of 25 analysts rate the stock a "buy" or better -- 22 of which are "strong buys." Elsewhere, ATVI sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.61, in the bullish 27th annual percentile. In the same bullish vein, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have bought to open 4.7 calls for every put during the past two weeks.

However, this preponderance of optimism in the options pits has made the bulls' camp crowded --almost overly so. Specifically, ATVI's Relative Strength Index (RSI) comes in at 66 -- dangerously close to "overbought" territory, revealing that the stock may be vulnerable to a pullback. While "Starcraft II" may indeed be a best-seller, the question now becomes whether or not there are any bears left to convert.

Sarah Wasserman (swasserman@sir-inc.com)


 Discuss this commentary (Comments: 0)  |   Email to a Friend  |  RSS Feed Add RSS Feed
 Del.icio.us   Facebook   Reddit   Newsvine   Digg!Digg  

These Are the Droids Motorola Bulls Are Looking For

Posted on 7/26/2010 11:21 AM

Publication: "The Wall Street Journal"
Publication title: "In Phone Wars, Motorola's Hopes Ride on the Droid"
Publication Date: 7/26/2010

KeyWords: MOT VZ AAPL 

Brief Summary:

According to this Wall Street Journal article, the return of Motorola Inc.'s (MOT) stock to its 2007 levels depends heavily on the success of the company's Droid smartphones. Investors currently don't assign much value to the loss-generating handset business, says Ehud Gelblum of Morgan Stanley, but it wasn't long ago that the company was dicing up the competition with the RAZR, generating more than $2 billion in operating profits per year.

MOT has since been squeezed into obscurity by the BlackBerries and iPhones of the world, but the new Droid X shows promise, says the Journal. Furthermore, the recent troubles with the iPhone 4's antenna, and HTC's "supply change snafus," have created an opening for the Droid. Still, the article notes that the iPhone is still the 800-pound gorilla in the room, especially with rumors that Verizon, which owns the Droid license, could offer Apple's mega-hit next year.

The author concludes that there are still hurdles for MOT to overcome, but the company's latest round of smartphones show that it could be on the right track. Short term, MOT shares could suffer from the addition of the iPhone to Verizon's lineup. As such, the Journal recommends that buy-and-hold investors wait for a better entry point on the shares.


Contrarian Takeaway:

Unless you are expecting MOT to crash back to (or through) $6 per share, then there really doesn't appear to be much sense in holding out for a better entry point on the security. The stock spent the early half of 2010 trending sideways along support in the $6 region, but the recent launch of the Droid X has helped propel MOT out of its doldrums, and above former resistance near $7.50 per share. Granted, there are still hurdles to overcome, but it would appear that MOT has some momentum growing in the bullish camp.

This growing positive vibe extends beyond the stock's price action, as bearish investors appear to be jumping ship on MOT. For instance, short sellers are fleeing their bearish bets, with the number of MOT shares sold short declining by more than 5% during the most recent reporting period. What's more, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) reveal that nearly seven calls have been bought to open for every put purchased during the prior two weeks. The resulting 10-day ISE/CBOE call/put volume ratio of 6.77 arrives in the 73rd annual percentile.

However, there is still plenty of sideline money that could still be brought to bear on MOT. Specifically, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.87 ranks above 85% of those taken in the past year, meaning that, despite the recent influx of call buying, the bullish bandwagon is far from overcrowded. Furthermore, Zacks reports that 15 of the 28 analysts following MOT still rate the stock a "hold" or worse, leaving ample room for potential upgrades.

The bottom line appears to be that if you want in on a MOT rally, now may be the best chance to do so before the crowd pushes the shares above a reasonable entry point. By holding out until the shares pull back from the suspected news that Verizon will be offering the iPhone, you may have cheated yourself out of several points to the upside, especially if you trade options.

Joseph Hargett (jhargett@sir-inc.com)


 Discuss this commentary (Comments: 0)  |   Email to a Friend  |  RSS Feed Add RSS Feed
 Del.icio.us   Facebook   Reddit   Newsvine   Digg!Digg  

Tiffany & Co. Proves Its Technical Mettle

Posted on 7/23/2010 3:51 PM

Publication: "Barron's"
Publication title: "Tiffany Is Diamond in Stock-Market Rough "
Publication Date: 7/22/2010

KeyWords: TIF 

Brief Summary:

This upbeat article describes Tiffany & Co. (TIF) as "a well-managed company with a sterling brand, sales momentum and immense potential for international growth." Plus, following a recent slide in the share price, the author notes that TIF is a relative bargain. Bullish analysts cited in the article claim that concerns over a slowdown in spending by upper-crust European consumers are overdone, and TIF's plans to expand in key international markets are cited as a potential catalyst for future sales growth.


Contrarian Takeaway:

As the article suggests, it just might be a prime time to scoop up shares of TIF. The stock has pulled back recently, and now faces pressure from its 10-week moving average -- but the equity's decline was neatly contained by its 80-week trendline. The latter moving average has served as a reliable demarcation line between periods of bullish and bearish price action in the security, and the successful test of its 80-week suggests that TIF is simply enduring a pullback in its latest uptrend.

The security's rebound from this critical support could spook the shorts, who recently ramped up their bets against TIF. Short interest on the retailer swelled by nearly 61% during the past month, and now represents approximately 11% of the equity's float. At TIF's average daily trading volume, it would take nearly a week for all of these shorted shares to be unwound. In other words, there's no shortage of sideline cash available to help propel TIF through looming short-term resistance.

Elizabeth Harrow (eharrow@sir-inc.com)


 Discuss this commentary (Comments: 0)  |   Email to a Friend  |  RSS Feed Add RSS Feed
 Del.icio.us   Facebook   Reddit   Newsvine   Digg!Digg  

Despite Technical Failure On and Off the Charts, Analysts Love GOOG

Posted on 7/22/2010 1:01 PM

Publication: "MSNBC"
Publication title: "Google Will Stop Selling Nexus One Phones In U.S."
Publication Date: 7/19/2010

KeyWords: GOOG 

Brief Summary:

This article reads like a eulogy to Google Inc.'s (GOOG) Nexus One, which has just been discontinued. Just this week, GOOG announced that it would be taking its "super" phone off the smartphone market, a market in which the Nexus One has been unable to find a niche. In a twist of irony, the author notes that due to the stellar Android system that GOOG helped create, the Nexus One folded to competition from other Android-operating smartphones.

Yet the author is able to view the Nexus One's loss as GOOG's success -- because of GOOG's hand in creating a fundamental smartphone operating system, the company actually drove "hardware partners to better designs, specs and features in order to stay competitive." So ultimately, GOOG's operating system hurt its foray into the smartphone industry -- but this author will remember the Nexus One as "one of the best Android devices" on the market.


Contrarian Takeaway:

OK, so GOOG designed a killer operating system -- of this, the author was very clear. However, the analyst failed to consider the other parts of the GOOG puzzle. Since peaking above $620 earlier this year, GOOG has surrendered 23%, and is currently situated in the $480 neighborhood. In fact, since mid-January, GOOG has faced overhead pressure from its 10-week and 20-week trendlines, which formed a bearish cross in late February, and have since provided staunch resistance.

Furthermore, in its quarterly report last week, GOOG reported earnings of $6.45 per share, falling short of the consensus estimate of $6.51 per share.

However, despite the stock's poor performance of late, we continue to see optimism blanket the shares, and not just from this article's author. Specifically, the stock has earned 30 "buy" or better ratings, three "holds," and no "sells," according to Zacks.

Yet while GOOG may have been the brains behind the Android operating system, the stock's technical performance leaves much to be desired. And even though the author doesn't think the demise of the Nexus One will hurt GOOG, it probably won't help matters, either. Plus, as GOOG continues its downward trajectory, a reversal of sentiment from the brokerage bunch could only make the search engine's situation worse.

Sarah Wasserman (swasserman@sir-inc.com)


 Discuss this commentary (Comments: 0)  |   Email to a Friend  |  RSS Feed Add RSS Feed
 Del.icio.us   Facebook   Reddit   Newsvine   Digg!Digg  

Contrarians Should Exercise Caution Ahead of Earnings from Chipotle Mexican Grill

Posted on 7/21/2010 2:49 PM

Publication: "The Wall Street Journal"
Publication title: "Can Chipotle Keep Spice in Recipe for Growth?"
Publication Date: 7/21/2010

KeyWords: CMG 

Brief Summary:

This article takes a cautious look at Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) ahead of earnings. Noting that the stock has "more than tripled since going public in 2006," and now trades "at about 22.5 times estimated 2011 earnings," the author says "caution may be warranted" ahead of the burrito chain's quarterly report. The company's habit of exceeding analysts' per-share profit expectations is a point of concern, says the article, because it means that hopes will be running high for another bottom-line beat. In short, concludes the author, Chipotle "will have to produce some spicy results" to disprove the skeptics.


Contrarian Takeaway:

CMG shares have suffered a technical breakdown lately, with the stock set to notch a weekly close beneath its 20-week moving average for the first time since December 2009. However, it's worth noting that the stock is now trading right near support in the $125 to $130 neighborhood, which has contained CMG's pullbacks since April.

CMG has certainly set the earnings bar high, with its habit of constantly outpacing consensus expectations. If the company can manage another stronger-than-expected report, though, there's still room for the stock to enjoy a boost as the remaining bears hit the exits.

For example, short interest accounts for nearly 9% of the equity's float, or roughly four days' worth of potential buying pressure. An upbeat quarterly report could prompt a bout of short-covering, helping the shares to bounce back from their recent slump.

However, pre-earnings bulls would probably be wise to hedge their bets. As the author points out, CMG's habit of exceeding Wall Street's forecasts means that the stock is vulnerable to a potentially drastic punishment, should those quarterly figures fall short of the mark.

Elizabeth Harrow (eharrow@sir-inc.com)


 Discuss this commentary (Comments: 0)  |   Email to a Friend  |  RSS Feed Add RSS Feed
 Del.icio.us   Facebook   Reddit   Newsvine   Digg!Digg  

Is Microsoft Corp. a Sitting Duck for Downgrades?

Posted on 7/20/2010 10:50 AM

Publication: "Can Windows Phone 7 Save Microsoft’s Mobile Bacon?"
Publication title: "PC World"
Publication Date: 7/19/2010

KeyWords: MSFT AAPL RIMM 

Brief Summary:

This PC World article notes the looming debut of Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Windows Phone 7 (or "WinPho 7," as the gadget geeks say), which is expected to reach the market in time for holiday shoppers. However, the columnist cautions that MSFT may be trying a little too hard to mimic the smartphone success of rivals Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Research In Motion Limited (RIMM) – a move that could come back to haunt the tech titan.

Most notably, opting to encapsulate its new ecosystem in a silo "may be shortsighted," the author states, as "some analysts believe the reason phones based on Google's Android operating system have surpassed the iPhone is because that ecosystem is open." In other words, if semi-closed systems like Apple's have to open up to stay competitive, "the WinPho paradigm may be a step behind the market before it's even out the door."

Meanwhile, the columnist warns that Microsoft is facing additional challenges, "no matter how spiffy Windows Phone 7 mobiles turn out to be." One such challenge, according to the author, is the company's "reputation as a bumbler." In addition, AAPL and RIMM have proven their ability to get things right the first time – a sore spot for MSFT, which "has a reputation of requiring numerous iterations of a product before getting it right." On that same note, competition could be growing even more fierce, thanks to an "800-pound gorilla" named Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), which could capitalize on its newly acquired Palm platform.


Contrarian Takeaway:

Despite the concerns surrounding its WinPho 7 launch, the Street remains relatively optimistic toward MSFT. These high hopes – especially ahead of the firm's date in the earnings confessional on Thursday, July 22 – could come back to bite the stock in the short term.

Technically speaking, the shares of MSFT have lagged the broader equities market, underperforming the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by almost 8% during the past 60 sessions. What's more, the security has surrendered roughly 17% since the start of 2010, with help from its ascending 10-week moving average – a trendline the stock hasn't finished a week above since late April.

Nevertheless, Zacks reports that 18 analysts still consider the equity a "strong buy," with another five issuing "buy" recommendations. In comparison, MSFT has earned only seven lukewarm "hold" ratings, with not a "sell" to be found. In the same vein, the consensus 12-month price target on the security stands at $34.48, representing a premium of 36% to MSFT's closing price of $25.23 on Monday.

Should Microsoft fail to impress with its upcoming earnings report or smartphone debut, an unwinding of optimism in the form of downgrades and/or price-target cuts could spark added selling pressure on the struggling stock.

Andrea Kramer (akramer@sir-inc.com)


 Discuss this commentary (Comments: 0)  |   Email to a Friend  |  RSS Feed Add RSS Feed
 Del.icio.us   Facebook   Reddit   Newsvine   Digg!Digg  

Can Procter & Gamble Co. Lead in this Weaker Economic Environment?

Posted on 7/19/2010 12:37 PM

Publication: "BusinessWeek"
Publication title: "High-Quality Stocks Could Take Market Lead"
Publication Date: 7/18/2010

KeyWords: PG CYC SPX JNJ 

Brief Summary:

According to this BusinessWeek article, the recent reports of slower U.S. economic growth could be a boon for those stocks known to hold their resilience during rough patches. Among those groups that investors should key upon, according to the author, are those in the health care and consumer goods sectors. "Maybe we'll have our moment in the sun," says Scott Armiger, portfolio manager at Christiana Bank & Trust Co., who has a high concentration in consumer staples stocks.

Within those groups, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Procter & Gamble (PG) are highlighted as the largest among their peers. While both are down since April 23, the article notes, they are still outperforming their peers in the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC). "Consumer staples and health care stocks typically have more predictable, less volatile earnings streams," says Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial Group.

Following this line of thinking, the problem becomes which stocks to focus on. According to Wayne Titche, chief investment officer at AMBS Investments, "the key is finding companies with strong balance sheets and cash flow, good management, and the ability to develop new products and gain market share."


Contrarian Takeaway:

While consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble isn't the focus of this BusinessWeek piece, the author mentions PG in the context of being a "high-quality stock" that could be a market leader. Like the rest of the market, the stock has had a rough year, gaining only about 2% since the start of 2010. However, compared to the S&P 500 Index's (SPX) loss of 4.5% for the same time frame, PG's minor gain looks quite solid. The problem for most short-term investors, however, is that the stock has largely been range-bound between $59 and $64 since November 2009. What's more, PG has suffered through this trading range despite rising volatility in the broader market.

On the sentiment front, optimism is running high on PG, despite the equity's lack of direction. For instance, options traders have bought to open 2.7 calls for every one put purchased on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) during the prior two weeks. The resulting 10-day ISE/CBOE call/put volume ratio of 2.69 ranks above 77% of all those taken during the past year.

Elsewhere, analysts are quite bullish toward PG. According to Zacks, 16 of the 23 analysts following the shares rate them a "buy" or better, with nary a "sell" rating to be found. While the consumer goods giant's shares may be an excellent investment from a long-term perspective, the equity's current trading range and bullish sentiment backdrop present a problem for PG traders. Should the current batch of optimists grow tired of waiting on a PG breakout, an unwinding of these bullish bets could mean that better entry points for buy-and-hold traders will emerge further down the road.

Joseph Hargett (jhargett@sir-inc.com)


 Discuss this commentary (Comments: 0)  |   Email to a Friend  |  RSS Feed Add RSS Feed
 Del.icio.us   Facebook   Reddit   Newsvine   Digg!Digg  








Search Past Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian

Search by:Word or phrase to search:

 

"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
~ Humphrey Neill,
The Art of Contrary Thinking

The above quote has been reiterated numerous times in our publications because of its ability to succinctly capture the essence of contrarian thinking. While simple in theory, the task of capturing the prevailing sentiment can be as elusive as defining the boundaries of a cloud. The closer you get to it, the harder it is to see.

Even Humphrey Neill admitted the difficulties inherent in gauging sentiment:

"I found in my own case that it took several years, as a matter of fact, before I was able to weigh 'public opinion' with sufficient accuracy to feel reasonably confident of the contrary conclusion. It takes time to form the habit of thinking contrarily…I grant you that you will have to peruse a pile of news and comments."

Regular Schaeffer's readers are well aware that we use "hard" data such as put/call ratios and short interest to gauge the sentiment of stocks, sectors, and the market as a whole. Graphs and numbers are easy to quantify and show. What is not so easy to convey is the sentiment that is gathered from poring over numerous publications and scanning various news outlets. This information is embedded in our approach and used to make trading decisions.

At Schaeffer's, we have a team of analysts who track this "anecdotal sentiment" and pull it all together for our in-house research. The amount of information available is overwhelming and it would be impossible for one individual to stay on top of it all. Noting that Neill himself acknowledged the complexity of tracking numerous publications and the need for experience, we have launched a new column, "Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian."

This daily column will post summaries of current articles and provide a short take on how we view the article in a contrarian light. Some entries will give you insight into how we read media articles and how to merge small morsels into a tasty contrarian meal. Our goal is to constantly scan various media and news outlets every trading day and present some of what we feel provides a good contrarian read. We should note that not all articles will lend themselves to a contrarian interpretation. In fact, most will not.

What This is Not

First and foremost, "Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian" is not meant as a trade recommendation. These articles and our contrarian interpretation are but a small piece of a much larger analytical puzzle. Gathering anecdotal sentiment from a variety of sources and merging this with hard data is the hallmark of contrarian analysis. Here you get a first-hand account of how to go about this in real time.

It's also important to understand that getting a contrarian read from an article is by no means a poor reflection on the publication or its writers. A negative article on a high-flying stock may site accurate facts and be extremely logical. And more importantly, it could ultimately prove to be correct. However, experience has taught us that uptrends do not end until the final capitulation where it seems that everyone has finally given up their concerns. The market has shown time and again that short-term moves are often driven purely on emotions. By monitoring the comments made by analysts in the media, we can add this to our contrarian arsenal to gauge whether the capitulation stage has finally been reached.

At Schaeffer's, we have the years of experience and the ability to "peruse the piles of news." More importantly, we are willing to share it with you every day. It's almost like having your own personal team of contrarian analysts gathering and summarizing anecdotal information. We hope "Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian" becomes a resource you value as much as we do.

(Top of Page)



Partner Center
tribal fussion